Will Telegram CEO Pavel Durov Be Free by October? Polymarket Bettors Weigh In

Market skepticism grows as bettors consider the possibility of Durov’s detention being extended.

Telegram CEO Pavel Durov's legal troubles have captured the attention of both the public and the betting markets following his arrest in France over the weekend. Despite a press release from French prosecutors indicating that Durov could be released as early as Wednesday, August 28, Polymarket bettors are not as optimistic. They are wagering that he may remain in custody beyond the 96-hour deadline prescribed by the courts.

Durov’s arrest, which took place on Saturday, August 24, 2024, at Le Bourget airport near Paris, was part of an investigation into alleged crimes associated with the Telegram platform. These include accusations of money laundering, drug trafficking, child pornography, and non-cooperation with law enforcement. While Durov has not yet been formally charged, the ongoing investigation and potential for additional evidence to be uncovered during questioning have led to doubts about his imminent release.

Polymarket, a popular platform for predictive betting, shows that bettors believe there is a 72% chance that Durov will be free before October, with shares of the "yes" side trading at 72 cents. Each share pays out $1 in USDC, a stablecoin, if the prediction comes true, and $0 if it does not. The market's current sentiment reflects uncertainty, with many anticipating that Durov’s detention could be extended or that formal charges could be brought against him, leading to pre-trial detention.

The outcome of this situation could have significant implications for Telegram and its associated cryptocurrency, TON coin, which was trading at $5.36 at the time of this release. The next few days will be crucial as French authorities continue their investigation and the market closely monitors any developments.

photo source / Blockonome